Bitcoin-Tech Stock Valuation Gap Hits Record High as Experts Eye Second-Half Catch-Up Rally

Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value, or MVRV, ratio compares its market capitalization with its realized on-chain value and is commonly used to gauge holders’ cost basis and the cryptocurrency’s valuation. Bitwise said Bitcoin is currently trading at the low end of its historical valuation range, while its valuation gap with Nasdaq technology stocks has widened to the largest on record, reflecting a pronounced imbalance in capital allocation amid the AI boom.

In its latest analysis, Bitwise said Bitcoin could stage a catch-up rally in the second half of 2026 if capital flows out of richly valued AI technology stocks and risk indicators complete their bottoming process. The firm also said BTC could evolve from a pure risk asset into a hybrid asset combining growth and safe-haven characteristics. The report provided no specific price target or estimate of potential capital flows.