Citrini Research Models AI-Driven Global Intelligence Crisis in 2028

Citrini Research modeled the cascading effects of companies replacing white-collar workers with automation and cutting personnel costs, based on the premise that AI capabilities will continue improving exponentially. Layoffs could depress household income and consumption. Weaker demand could then prompt companies to adopt AI even faster, creating a “non-cyclical recession” with no natural brake.

The report places this risk scenario in 2028. If AI displaces jobs on a large scale, a global knowledge-work crisis could push unemployment above 10% and drive the S&P 500 down 38% from its peak. Recent debate has expanded to include Jack Dorsey’s warnings about AI and jobs, while markets are reassessing technology-stock valuations and recession risks. The report did not specify an estimated monetary loss.

Citrini Research published “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” a scenario in which AI replaces large numbers of white-collar workers, lifting corporate output even as household income and consumption decline. The report describes the resulting disconnect from material well-being as “ghost GDP.” It has deepened market concerns that AI could disrupt the software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model. Related reports did not disclose the amount spent on the research or its exact publication date.

Anthropic’s recent release of new Claude Cowork capabilities was seen by the market as a trigger for the technology-stock selloff, as investors worried that AI agent tools would reduce software companies’ subscription revenue and staffing needs. Citrini Research set 2028 as the crisis scenario’s timeframe, but available information did not provide the share-price decline, the amount of market value erased or the exact date when the Claude Cowork capabilities were released.