Anthony Scaramucci Says Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Remains Intact, Sees Rebound in Fourth Quarter of 2026

Bitcoin’s block reward halves roughly every four years, and the market has long used this “four-year cycle” to interpret supply contractions and shifts between bull and bear markets. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said institutional capital and spot ETFs have reduced volatility but have not disrupted the cycle, which remains an important guide to the next market upswing.

Scaramucci recently said BTC would remain volatile in the short term but should begin recovering in the fourth quarter of 2026 and enter a new bull market. He also said Bitcoin could have climbed to $150,000 in 2025 on favorable U.S. policies. For now, buying by institutions and ETFs can only temper price swings and is not yet sufficient to invalidate the four-year cycle.