Mr. Berg Uses STH-RP Model to Map Potential Bitcoin Bottom
Identifying Bitcoin’s cyclical bottoms is an important signal for cryptocurrency investors. Analyst Mr. Berg’s “STH-RP Deviation Adjustment Model” centers on the average cost basis of short-term holders and incorporates on-chain behavioral data to gauge market panic and the transfer of holdings. Its ability to anticipate market-cycle turning points has made his latest assessment of when and how Bitcoin could form a bottom an important reference for investors weighing their entry timing.
According to a BlockTempo report in mid-July 2026, Mr. Berg said the blue line marking Bitcoin’s potential bottom in this cycle stood at about $51,047. However, the line is falling by roughly $800 every two weeks, and its confluence with other indicators could break down if bottom formation is delayed. In that case, the green line at about $57,955 could take over as the new anchor for the cycle bottom, repeating the pattern seen during the 2022 bear market.
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The history behind this eventAnalyst Says New STH-RP Data Point to BTC Cyclical Bottom Zone
Short-Term Holder Realized Price, or STH-RP, measures the average cost basis of investors who have held Bitcoin for shorter periods and serves as an on-chain indicator of market sentiment and Bitcoin's position in the cycle. Taiwanese analyst Mr. Beige applied a deviation-adjusted model and compared it with Cointime Price and Long-Term Holder Realized Price, or LTH-RP, to determine whether different valuation methods were producing convergent signals.
Mr. Beige's latest data showed that the blue line for deviation-adjusted STH-RP almost perfectly tracks Cointime Price. When LTH-RP is also considered, several independent models are converging on a narrow zone that could mark Bitcoin's cyclical bottom. The reports did not disclose the observation date, price range or amounts, however, and the signals are intended only to help assess entry timing rather than confirm that a bottom has been established.
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