Bitcoin’s CVDD Floor Faces Bear-Market Reality Check

Cumulative Value Days Destroyed, or CVDD, combines Bitcoin on-chain coin-age activity with market valuation to estimate potential long-term bear-market floors. Traders have treated the model as a “Maginot Line” because Bitcoin has historically avoided a sustained break below it. That record has made CVDD influential in cycle analysis, though the small number of completed Bitcoin bear markets limits the statistical strength of any claim that the boundary cannot fail.

In the latest analysis compiled as of July 24, 2026, Mr. Berg placed the CVDD threshold at $46,252. He said the level broadly overlaps the range produced by his own deep-bear valuation model, offering a degree of cross-confirmation. Still, he cautioned that CVDD rests on too few historical observations and may be overfitted, meaning its past success should not be read as proof that Bitcoin will defend the level in the next major downturn.