U.S. Weighs Tighter AI Chip Export Curbs to China, Potential Caps on Nvidia and AMD Supplies

Nvidia’s advanced AI chip exports to China have long been restricted amid the U.S.-China technology conflict. Beijing previously told domestic companies to suspend purchases of Nvidia products, citing cybersecurity concerns and support for homegrown chips, leaving Chinese AI companies facing a shortage of computing power. After the Trump administration eased export controls about six months ago and approved the China-specific H200 chip, attention shifted to whether Beijing would allow domestic companies to import it. The case has therefore become a key gauge of U.S.-China technology competition and the pace of China’s AI development.

The latest reports indicate that Beijing plans to allow domestic companies including Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek to buy limited quantities of H200 chips, while the U.S. government has again given the green light to Chinese companies’ purchase applications. The news sent Nvidia shares up more than 4% in a single session. However, the number of chips ultimately approved could fall short of half of China’s demand, according to market estimates. The H200 also trails Nvidia’s latest-generation products technologically, meaning the Chinese technology sector’s computing-power shortfall is unlikely to be fully alleviated in the near term.

The United States is continuing to tighten export controls to prevent advanced AI chips from reaching China through third countries and cloud facilities. Against this backdrop, global AI chip leader Nvidia has faced regulatory pressure from government agencies including the U.S. Commerce Department, forcing it to strengthen supply-chain compliance reviews. The shift marks a move from passively following rules to actively preventing illegal transshipments. It is directly affecting Asia’s cloud-computing infrastructure landscape and forcing Nvidia to adjust its capacity allocation at TSMC to manage supply-chain risks.

Nvidia began applying whitelist reviews in Asia in July 2026, cutting its roster of AI chip buyers in markets including Singapore, Malaysia and Japan by more than 50%. To fully enforce U.S. Commerce Department rules, Nvidia has also dispatched auditors to inspect Asian data centers in person and prevent next-generation chips such as Blackwell from reaching shell companies. Businesses that fail the initial compliance review must address the deficiencies before reapplying.

The U.S. Commerce Department had planned a global export licensing system for advanced AI chips that would subject overseas sales by companies including NVIDIA and AMD to review, tightening oversight of data centers and AI computing infrastructure. Because those companies depend heavily on international markets, the proposed rules could have delayed shipments and increased revenue uncertainty, weighing on semiconductor shares.

After news of the proposal emerged, investors worried that sales of advanced AI chips from NVIDIA and AMD might require case-by-case licenses, sending both companies' shares lower at one point during the session. However, the latest reports said the Commerce Department subsequently withdrew the draft, leaving the proposed comprehensive licensing regime on hold. Publicly available information did not specify the withdrawal date, the size of the share-price declines or the value of sales that could have been affected.