Bitcoin Hovers Near $77,000 as Bond Selloff Tests Rally

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to shifts in global liquidity and US interest rates because rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding risk assets. With government bond yields approaching a 20-year high, remarks from the US Treasury secretary added to uncertainty over the rate outlook, prompting investors to reduce risk ahead of the closely watched month-end close.

Bitcoin traded around $78,000 on Aug. 31, 2026, swinging sharply while remaining confined near that level as traders assessed whether it could preserve key monthly support. Technical analysts flagged a hidden bearish divergence in the relative strength index, or RSI, suggesting that rebound momentum may be weakening. The pattern raised the risk of renewed selling pressure into the monthly close.

Bitcoin is holding a key technical level as tighter global financial conditions challenge demand for speculative assets. Rate-hike expectations have lifted the dollar and pushed the yen beyond 160 per dollar, a closely watched threshold in currency markets. A stronger greenback generally tightens liquidity and raises the hurdle for further gains in dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies, leaving Bitcoin and the broader digital-asset market sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations.

With August nearing its close, Bitcoin remained near $78,000, consolidating rather than staging a decisive breakout. Traders are watching whether the dollar can extend its advance and how policymakers respond after the yen weakened through 160. Unless rate-hike bets ease and pressure on global liquidity recedes, dollar strength is likely to remain the main obstacle to a sustained cryptocurrency rally.

Rising US Treasury yields and higher oil prices are tightening financial conditions and reviving inflation concerns, weighing on investors’ appetite for risk. Equities have fallen under the macroeconomic pressure, but Bitcoin’s ability to remain near a closely watched threshold suggests buyers are still providing support. The divergence is notable because the cryptocurrency often trades as a volatile risk asset during broad market selloffs.

Bitcoin held above $64,000 and edged higher in the latest trading updates, even as oil advanced and surging bond yields dragged equities lower. South Korea’s Kospi tumbled as much as 6%, while US stocks extended their decline. The cryptocurrency’s resilience amid the cross-asset retreat highlighted its relative strength, though continued pressure from yields, energy prices and weaker equity sentiment remains a key test for demand.

Bitcoin has traded as a risk asset alongside US equities, making its resilience notable as the US-Iran war escalates, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and crude prices rise. The advance suggests investors are looking through immediate geopolitical and trade shocks, even as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon cautions that markets may be underpricing risk. The key question is whether the rebound marks a durable break from Bitcoin’s bear-market structure or merely a squeeze-driven rally.

TradingView data showed BTC/USD nearing $67,000 after Wall Street opened on July 21, putting it close to a seven-week high as WTI crude approached $85 a barrel. Reports said President Donald Trump was considering a 10% international tariff after 50% measures on Canada. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan said resistance was limited before $67,250, but Bitcoin still needed to reclaim its 21-week simple moving average, then around $69,720, to challenge the broader bear trend. A 21-day/50-day “golden cross” formed on July 20.

Bitcoin failed to break above $80,000, shifting the market’s focus to support at $75,000. Repeated profit-taking near $77,000 points to insufficient spot demand. Short covering has lifted prices but has not generated enough momentum for a sustained breakout.

As of July 19, Bitcoin was trading mainly between $77,500 and $78,500, most recently at about $77,700. Open interest in the derivatives market fell by more than 6%, indicating that traders were actively reducing leverage. Volatility also cooled after the wave of liquidations, while analysts are watching whether $75,000 support can hold.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rates and dollar liquidity. When US Treasury yields rise, non-yielding assets become relatively less attractive to hold. The latest decline coincided with losses in stocks and gold, reflecting traders’ reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path amid inflation concerns. The move was therefore not confined to the crypto market.

Around May 15, Bitcoin fell about 3% in a single day, breaking below $79,000 and touching $78,000 before sliding below $77,000 to a low of about $76,000. Liquidations of bullish crypto positions reached $500 million, while SOL and XRP each dropped about 5%. US Treasury yields neared 20-year highs, although Bitcoin’s implied volatility remained low.

Bitcoin is often viewed as a highly volatile risk asset, yet its price has remained relatively steady as the conflict involving Iran intensifies and concerns over energy supplies and inflation mount. Markets are also awaiting the U.S. Commerce Department's PCE price index for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path, while Trump has again publicly called on the Fed to cut rates.

As of April 13, Bitcoin had broken above $72,000 and was advancing toward $73,000. BTC held above $71,000 even after Trump warned of possible strikes on Iran's oil-rich Kharg Island. Traders maintained an $80,000 price target, underscoring Bitcoin's outperformance against most macro assets weighed down by the war and economic data.