Perpetual Futures Drive Bitcoin and Ether Price Discovery

Perpetual futures, or perps, are leveraged derivatives with no expiry, using periodic funding payments to stay aligned with spot prices. They now account for about 93% of crypto futures volume and routinely trade more each day than the underlying spot market. Market-microstructure research has repeatedly found that perps on unregulated venues, especially Binance, absorb new information first, while regulated futures and U.S. spot exchanges often follow, making derivatives central to price discovery in bitcoin and ether.

CoinDesk reported on July 30, 2026, that the same machinery successfully anticipated demand for SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO. Hyperliquid opened a synthetic contract on May 18, Binance followed on May 21 and Coinbase on June 4. Ahead of the June 12 Nasdaq debut, Hyperliquid and Binance perps implied about $170 a share versus the $135 offer price. SpaceX then traded above $176 and closed at $161, up 19%, though it later fell to about $115 as roughly 900 million insider shares neared eligibility for sale around Aug. 6.