Bitcoin Rally Stalls, Dogecoin Falls as Iran Ceasefire Optimism Lifts Global Stocks

The conflict between Iran and the United States has roiled global energy markets and risk assets, with the Strait of Hormuz serving as a vital oil-shipping route. A prolonged closure could drive up oil prices and inflationary pressure while weighing on volatile assets such as Bitcoin. Iran’s 14-point ceasefire proposal and its willingness to reopen the strait first have become key to the market’s assessment of whether geopolitical risks will ease.

As of July 20, 2026, the United States and Iran were reportedly close to signing a “ceasefire memorandum.” Although U.S. President Donald Trump remained wary of the proposal and did not rule out renewed military action, risk appetite had already recovered. After briefly moving above $79,000, Bitcoin climbed further to more than $82,000, while Ethereum also broke above $2,400.

The U.S.-Iran conflict and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz had driven up global demand for safe-haven assets, putting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. Markets are now anticipating a 45-day ceasefire agreement between the two sides. An easing of geopolitical risk could help draw capital back into cryptocurrencies and technology stocks, making a deal an important signal for whether markets can reverse course.

News of the ceasefire talks lifted Bitcoin to $69,200 on Monday, reversing losses triggered by panic over the weekend. The U.S. and Iran were also reported to be preparing for talks in Pakistan this Friday. A short squeeze liquidated about $196 million in bearish positions, but the OKX CEO said the rally was driven mainly by steady spot demand rather than highly leveraged trading, suggesting relatively orderly capital allocation.