Amundi Warns Global Economy and AI Investment Face Second-Half Stress Test

Amundi Asset Management's 2026 global economic outlook said the world economy showed strong resilience in the first half, supported by artificial intelligence investment and strategic-autonomy policies. AI spending has become a key growth engine, but elevated valuations and infrastructure constraints have left the market overly concentrated among a handful of technology giants. Global markets now face a critical macroeconomic and financial stress test in the second half as they contend with high inflation and geopolitical shocks.

In its July 2026 report, Amundi forecast that global GDP growth would slow to 3.0% in 2026, while U.S. growth would recover to 1.9%. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged, while the central banks of the euro zone, Britain and Japan could each raise rates once more by year-end. Analyst Yao Yuan advised investors to diversify into gold, commodities and real assets in the second half, while seeking a broader range of opportunities across the AI value chain, including power grids and automation.