Bitcoin, Ether Traders Position for Volatility Ahead of U.S. CPI

Bitcoin and ether have been pinned in tight ranges as investors await the U.S. July consumer price index on Aug. 12, a release that could reset expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A hotter reading would bolster the case for a September rate increase, lift Treasury yields and pressure risk assets; softer inflation could produce the opposite reaction. Bitcoin has traded between $62,000 and $66,000 for weeks, while depressed implied volatility has made options an attractive way to position for a breakout.

Laevitas said the dominant Deribit flow was the $70,000 bitcoin call expiring Sept. 25, with buyers paying about $2.5 million in premiums. TDX Strategies favored December strangles on bitcoin and Solana to profit from a large move either way. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.1% month on month and 3.4% year on year, with core readings of 0.2% and 2.5%. Nansen said ether posted $49.7 million in one-day exchange outflows and $164.6 million over a week. Yet sophisticated Hyperliquid traders held net shorts of $46.8 million in bitcoin and $20.9 million in ether, leaving the market cautiously bullish overall.