Bitcoin Loss Risk Falls to 0.7% With Holding Periods of Three Years or More, Bitwise Study Finds

Bitcoin is known for sharp price swings, and investors who buy at the peak of a bull market can face substantial short-term paper losses. Bitwise Europe backtested BTC prices from July 2010 through February 2026 to assess the probability of losses over different holding periods. The results show that investment horizons have historically mattered more to returns than short-term market timing, though past success rates offer no guarantee of future performance.

Reports published on March 1, 2026, cited Bitwise Europe data showing loss probabilities of 0.7%, 0.2% and 0% for BTC holding periods of three, five and 10 years, respectively, compared with 47.1% for intraday trading. Investors who had held Bitcoin for three to five years had an average cost basis of about $34,780, with around 90% still sitting on unrealized gains. Those who had held for six to 12 months had an average cost basis of $101,250 and paper losses of about 35%.