Inflation, Nvidia and Fed Signals Set Bitcoin's Next Test

Bitcoin’s seven-day surge from about $63,000 to above $80,000 pushed its 14-day relative strength index above 70, a level widely viewed as overbought, before prices slipped below $79,000. The rally leaves the cryptocurrency unusually exposed to macro catalysts. Its 90-day rolling correlation with Nvidia has remained mostly positive and above 0.5 since early 2025, underscoring how inflation, interest-rate expectations and technology-sector risk appetite can steer digital assets.

Traders are watching three events during the week of Aug. 26. FactSet’s consensus forecast puts July core PCE inflation at 3.2% year-on-year and 0.18% month-on-month, versus 3.3% and 0.13% in June. Nvidia is due to report second-quarter earnings after Wednesday’s close, while Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday. CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets pricing nearly a 38% chance of a 25-basis-point September rate increase.