Bitcoin Could Fall Below $58,000 if Indicator Repeats Historical Pattern, Analysis Says

Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit/loss, or NUPL, measures the aggregate paper gains or losses of holders. CryptoQuant uses it as a key on-chain indicator for identifying market sentiment and the stage of the cycle. When the metric and its exponential moving average approach historical lows, that typically indicates shrinking investor profits and selling pressure that has yet to be fully cleared.

As of July 20, 2026, CryptoQuant’s latest analysis said NUPL’s exponential moving average was slowly moving toward the bottom of the current cycle. If the pattern from previous cycles repeats, Bitcoin may have to set another low and could even fall below $58,000. The estimate is based on a comparison with historical indicators and is not a definitive price forecast.