Bitcoin Faces Test from Thin Summer Liquidity and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis

Onchain analytics firm Glassnode defines the short-term holder cost basis as the average purchase price paid by investors who have held bitcoin for less than about 155 days. When bitcoin remains above that level, most recent buyers retain unrealized gains. A break below it could turn those gains into unrealized losses and trigger stop-loss selling, making the metric an important dividing line for market direction and investor confidence.

Glassnode said on July 3, 2026, that bitcoin had entered a period of thin summer liquidity, with insufficient fresh capital entering both spot and derivatives markets. The price remained locked in a tug of war around the short-term holder cost basis. The report did not disclose the level’s exact dollar value, but showed that long-term holders continued to accumulate. The key question is whether spot ETF flows and trading volume can recover.