Bitcoin Nears Historic Power-Law Support as Analysts See Accumulation Zone

Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer has long used a power-law model to gauge Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. The model’s lower boundary has repeatedly approached cyclical lows since 2015, making roughly $60,000 more than a psychological threshold: It is also a key support zone for assessing whether long-term buyers are entering the market.

On July 3, 2026, Timmer said the model’s support level had risen to $58,237. Bitcoin was trading at about $62,700 when related reports were published on July 12. Bitcoin’s ratio to gold and the extent of its deviation from the price trendline were approaching their 2018 and 2022 lows, pointing to a bullish divergence and signs of base-building. Timmer, however, had yet to confirm a bottom and said a reversal still lacked a catalyst from global liquidity.

The power-law model uses the scaling relationship between Bitcoin’s historical price and time to estimate its long-term trend and cyclical lows. Analyst Giovanni’s model puts the trend price at about $135,000. Checkonchain data show that the current valuation is nearing the zones associated with the lows of 2015, 2020 and 2023, making the model an important gauge of whether the decline has deviated from Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Cointelegraph reported on June 25, 2026, that Bitcoin had fallen to $58,000, about 54% below its all-time high, while its power-law percentile had dropped to 6.2%. Taker sell volume on Binance reached $2.1 billion in one hour and increased by another $1.9 billion in the next, while more than $300 million in long positions were liquidated. Derivatives data indicated that the next support level was around $55,000.