Goldman Warns Oil Could Hit $145, Threatening Bitcoin and Markets

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial conduit for global oil shipments, and supply disruptions would drive up energy costs and inflation. Goldman Sachs warned that Japan's heavy reliance on imported energy means soaring oil prices could lift Japanese government bond yields and trigger an unwinding of yen carry trades. The resulting flight from risk assets could squeeze crypto-market liquidity and weigh on BTC.

As of July 20, 2026, reports said global crude inventories were closing in on an eight-year low, while a South Korean vessel had caught fire in waters near the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman estimated that the crisis could briefly push crude prices to $110 a barrel. BTC had just reclaimed the $80,000 level, and markets were watching whether moves in oil prices, Japanese government bond yields and the yen would unleash a fresh wave of selling.

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, 2026, raising concerns that the energy shock could spread to inflation and interest rates. A 2023 Federal Reserve study estimated that every 10% increase in crude oil prices could add 0.35–0.40 percentage points to the CPI. If inflation reignites and interest-rate cuts are delayed, tighter liquidity would weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

On March 27, WTI crude rose above $97 a barrel and approached $98, while the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury climbed to 4.986%, its highest since September 2025. Cointelegraph on March 20 cited a scenario outlined by a Saudi official in which oil could rise to $180 if supply disruptions persist beyond April. Its technical analysis also indicated that Bitcoin could fall to $51,000–$52,000 within months if it breaks below flag-pattern support.