JPMorgan Says Geopolitical Conflict Is Driving Bitcoin Safe-Haven Demand

Bitcoin has long been cast as an inflation-resistant form of “digital gold,” but Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the Iran conflict has highlighted another dimension of its value: a neutral settlement network that does not rely on the dollar, banks or any single country. Fidelity Digital Assets has also pointed to growing evidence of a global shift away from dollar-based systems, making Bitcoin an option for investors betting on the future monetary order.

The latest shift came after Iran demanded that ships pay transit fees in Bitcoin to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting markets to reassess its role in cross-border settlement. After the U.S. military seized an Iranian merchant vessel, the blockade escalated and the United States threatened to attack power plants, oil prices surged 8% in a single day. Bitcoin gained 12% during the geopolitical conflict. The reports did not provide an exact date or the amount of the transit fee.

The US-Iran military conflict escalated to torpedo warfare in July 2026, with the United States claiming it had gained control of Iranian airspace within a week. The New York Times also reported that hundreds of US special operations troops had arrived in the Middle East. The fighting has increased energy and inflation risks, prompting markets to reassess whether Bitcoin can serve as “digital gold” when stocks, bonds and gold are under pressure.

As of July 19, Iran's president had rejected a US ceasefire demand, saying 14 million people were ready to defend the country. Oil rose 4% in a single day and 41% over nearly a month, while gold fell 9% over the same period. Bitcoin traded as low as a $66,000–$74,000 range before holding near $70,000. It declined less than US stocks, but its safe-haven status still requires longer-term validation.

The intensifying war involving Iran has prompted global investors to reassess energy supplies, U.S. Treasuries and risk assets. Bitcoin has often been viewed as a highly volatile investment, but its gains as traditional financial markets declined have revived debate over whether it can serve as a geopolitical hedge.

As of July 19, 2026, reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would allow U.S. forces to use bases in their territories against Iran pushed Bitcoin back above $70,000. Ether and Solana also rose. Markets were also watching how U.S. Treasury movements could influence the Trump administration’s military decisions and cryptocurrency prices.

US Treasuries have long been regarded as a core safe-haven asset in the global financial system, with governments, central banks and financial institutions among their major holders. By linking Treasury purchases to support for US military action, Iran has politicized financial investment and prompted markets to reassess the ability of both Treasuries and Bitcoin to provide protection against wartime risks.

Iran’s parliament speaker recently warned that holders of US Treasuries could be designated as targets for military strikes. The warning pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield above 4.4%, close to its highest level since August. Geopolitical risks also triggered a broader asset selloff, with Bitcoin falling below $104,000 and failing to decouple from traditional risk assets.