Bitcoin Rebounds Above $69,000, but Analysts Remain Cautious on Trend Reversal

Bitcoin and Ether are the crypto market’s main gauges of risk appetite, with sharp moves often spilling into altcoins and leveraged derivatives. The latest recovery comes as record-high U.S. equities and easing anxiety over the Federal Reserve encourage investors to take on more risk. Still, sentiment remains fragile after recent volatility and heavy liquidations unsettled traders across digital-asset markets.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $65,000 level in the latest broad-based advance, while Ether jumped more than 3% to break above $1,940. Crypto derivatives positions worth about $213 million were liquidated across the market over the past 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 30, signaling an improvement from deeper pessimism, though the reading remained in “fear” territory and pointed to continued caution among investors.

The Coinbase Premium Index is a key gauge of buying demand from major US institutions and large holders, known as whales. It tracks the difference between Bitcoin prices on regulated US exchange Coinbase and those on other exchanges worldwide. A rising premium indicates that US investors are buying aggressively above the global average price. This is often seen as a leading indicator of a bullish crypto market and can play a decisive role in forecasting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

According to a report released by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant in mid-July, strong buying by large US investors pushed the Coinbase Premium Index back above its 14-day moving average. The breakout directly helped Bitcoin return to $64,000. Although the premiums for Bitcoin and Ether remain negative, both have rebounded from local lows, indicating that buying momentum is rebuilding and laying the groundwork for a further recovery.

Bitcoin's short-term cost basis is tightly concentrated, meaning a rebound into holders' cost range could trigger selling by investors seeking to break even or take profits. Crypto analyst Murphy said this suggests the market has yet to break out of its weak pattern. The reports did not disclose Murphy's affiliation or the date the analysis was published.

Murphy's latest estimate puts the average cost basis of Bitcoin's short-term holders primarily between $64,000 and $68,000, making those levels rebound targets and resistance zones. Murphy sees the current move as merely a weak rebound. A strong turn and potential trend reversal would require Bitcoin to break above and hold $70,000, viewed as the dividing line between bull and bear markets.