Expected 5% Rise in Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Signals Possible Price Bottom
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is periodically adjusted according to network-wide computing power to maintain the average rate of block production. A higher difficulty typically indicates that more miners are resuming operations and computing power is returning to the network. Charles Schwab said miners’ willingness to recommit equipment and electricity costs suggests they believe Bitcoin remains profitable at current prices. It could also indicate that selling prompted by earlier operating pressure is nearing an end.
Charles Schwab recently said Bitcoin’s next mining-difficulty adjustment was expected to raise the level by about 5%, viewing this as a sign that the price could be bottoming. The report did not provide an exact adjustment date, Bitcoin price or monetary amount. The market still faces pressure from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and expectations of interest-rate increases, meaning the difficulty rise is only one of several bottoming indicators and cannot alone confirm a market reversal.
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The history behind this eventBitcoin Miner Capitulation Nears End, Signaling Potential BTC Price Bottom
Miner capitulation occurs when revenue falls below operating costs, forcing less efficient operators to shut down and sell BTC. That reduces the hash rate and intensifies selling pressure. Glassnode’s Hash Ribbon compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of the hash rate. A fresh crossover of the shorter average above the longer one has historically coincided with local or cyclical Bitcoin bottoms, making it a deep-value signal for the market.
Glassnode said on Feb. 25 that the capitulation phase had lasted about three months since late November 2025, as BTC fell from $90,000 to nearly $60,000 in early February. By June 12, Capriole Investments estimated production costs at $61,200 and electricity costs at $48,965, with miner profit margins at just 4.67%. Trader Killa therefore said the final bear-market bottom might not arrive until later in 2026.
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