Bitcoin Bear Market Seen Ending in September, Paving Way for Bull Run
Bitcoin, a key bellwether for the cryptocurrency market, has recently faced the dual pressures of geopolitical risk and macroeconomic policy. The escalating U.S.-Iran military conflict and volatility in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy have made the digital asset’s price trajectory a direct factor in allocation decisions by institutional and retail investors worldwide. Market analysts are closely watching the timing of a shift from a bear to a bull market because it will shape capital flows across the crypto market in the coming quarters.
According to a Cointelegraph report published on July 13, 2026, the U.S.-Iran conflict briefly pushed Bitcoin back toward $62,000 this week, while the cryptocurrency faced resistance at $64,000. Several traders, however, said Bitcoin’s bear market was expected to bottom in September or October, with a new bull run potentially beginning in September.
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The history behind this eventAnalysts See Bitcoin Bear Market Lasting Through End-2026, With Bottom at $30,000–$45,000
Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.
Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.
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