UBS Turns Cautious on US Stocks as Analysts See Potential Shift to Bitcoin

UBS says the roughly $70 trillion US stock market remains supported by AI-driven earnings, but its valuations command a 35% premium over global peers, far above the 4% average since 2010. A weaker dollar, policy shifts and diminishing support from corporate buybacks also prompted the bank to downgrade US equities to neutral. The call matters because limited upside for US stocks could drive capital into bonds, gold or Bitcoin.

Bitcoin fell below $65,500 on Feb. 27, 2026, while UBS maintained its year-end target of 7,500 for the S&P 500. If the index's upside is limited, capital could rotate into Bitcoin. On March 7, UBS further reduced its allocations to technology and communication services, shifting toward industrials, electrification and healthcare. Analysts estimate that a 52% rise in BTC to $100,000 would give it a market capitalization of about $2 trillion, while sovereign wealth funds announcing reserves could strengthen demand.