Bitcoin Tests Key Level as Analysts Eye $80,000

Bitcoin's “golden cross,” in which a short-term trend rises above a long-term trend, is considered a bullish signal. The market is focusing on CryptoQuant's MVRV ratio and the 200-day EMA. After two similar crosses in 2023, Bitcoin first gained about 90%, followed by a rally that delivered a cumulative gain of roughly 400%. The pattern is therefore seen as a clue to a potential trend reversal, though it does not guarantee further gains.

Cointelegraph reported on May 11, 2026, that BTC briefly climbed above $82,000 before retesting $80,000. CoinGlass recorded more than $400 million in crypto-market liquidations over 24 hours. Trader CrypNuevo forecast that Bitcoin could test $84,000–$85,000 this week. CryptoQuant's indicator is closing in on its first such cross in nearly three years, while tensions between the United States and Iran could still amplify short-term volatility.

Bitcoin returned to $80,000 for the first time in three months and reached its highest level since January, signaling renewed buying after the previous pullback. Cointelegraph cited traders as saying the short-term holder cost basis and technical momentum would be key to the next move. The rally may continue only if $80,000 turns into support.

In the latest market assessment as of May 4, Bitcoin held above $80,000 ahead of the weekly close, though traders warned that the pullback might not be over. Analysts initially targeted $84,000 and $88,000. A break above the resistance zone would put the short-term holder cost basis near $92,000 in view as the next target, with the price potentially reaching $95,000 in an optimistic scenario.

Bitcoin bulls still expect BTC to climb to $250,000 by year-end, but veteran trader Peter Brandt remains cautious about that target. Crypto prices are often shaped by capital flows and technical factors, and Bitcoin's ability to hold key support will help determine whether the current bull cycle continues.

The latest market debate centers on the “sell in May” effect, with several analysts warning that Bitcoin's bearish phase may not be over. Technical indicators show BTC still risks retesting support. If selling intensifies in May, reaching $250,000 this year will become more difficult, although the reports did not identify a specific support level.

Bitcoin has rebounded since falling below $60,000 in February 2026 and has traded within an ascending channel since April. The 200-day simple and exponential moving averages are key gauges of the long-term trend. A sustained recovery would be more firmly confirmed only if resistance near $82,000 turns into support.

CoinDesk, citing Glassnode data on May 13, 2026, said the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages stood at $82,455 and $82,027, respectively. CryptoQuant previously reported that nearly $6 billion in stablecoins flowed into Binance in March and April, while BTC held the $75,700–$78,400 cost-basis support zone identified by CheckonChain.

Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures whether spent coins are in profit or loss relative to their acquisition cost, while Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) reflects unrealized gains and losses across all holders. Both are commonly used to identify turning points in market cycles. CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 believes a bottom formed in February, while Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution shows substantial breakeven selling pressure remains overhead.

Cointelegraph reported on April 21, 2026, that Bitcoin had rebounded more than 26% from a multiyear low below $60,000 on February 6, briefly approaching $78,000. SOPR rose from 0.62 in early February to an eight-month high of 2.87, while NUPL also turned positive. About 1.1 million BTC have a cost basis of $84,000, while U.S. spot ETFs have an average cost basis of $83,100. Those levels could cap gains and trigger a pullback.

Bitcoin has fallen about 41% from its record high of $126,000 and slipped below several onchain cost-basis benchmarks, leaving the latest rebound as a test of whether the bearish trend can be reversed. Glassnode gauges selling pressure by the share of short-term holder supply in profit and assesses overhead resistance using the active supply cost basis. Both indicators will be critical to whether the rally can continue.

On April 16, 2026, Cointelegraph cited Glassnode as saying Bitcoin's rise to $76,000 had turned the short-term trend bullish. The share of short-term holder supply in profit stood at 43.2%, still below the 54.2% level commonly seen at rebound peaks. The next hurdle is the True Market Mean at $78,140, with more than 200,000 BTC previously purchased near $78,000. On April 17, analysts said the price needed to hold firmly above $76,000.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.

Bitcoin is a bellwether for the crypto market, and major altcoins including ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL often move with shifts in its risk appetite. Cointelegraph reviewed the market on April 8, 2026, using TradingView daily technical indicators. After BTC’s prolonged correction, its ability to hold above $72,000 will determine whether the rebound can spread to major altcoins.

Bitcoin briefly broke above $72,000 on April 8 but failed to hold the level at the close. The 20-day EMA turned higher and the RSI moved into positive territory, signaling a bullish short-term bias. A break above the $72,000–$76,000 resistance zone could open the way to $84,000. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson warned that Bitcoin could still plunge by about $15,000 to $54,000 over the next five months.

CoinDesk analysis found that Bitcoin formed a narrow ascending channel between November 20, 2025, and January 20, 2026, before breaking below support and plunging from about $90,000. It came close to $60,000 at its February 6 low. The current rebound is showing a similar structure, suggesting limited buying on dips. Whether Bitcoin can hold the channel’s lower boundary will be critical in determining if bearish selling pressure intensifies.

Bitcoin consolidated near $67,000 on April 5 as its four-hour Bollinger Bands narrowed. Trader LP said a decline to $60,000 was only a matter of time. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan said a TWAP bot on Binance sold $18 million in one hour, far above its usual daily volume of $3 million to $5 million.

Bitcoin recently approached $72,000, with geopolitical uncertainty doing little to weaken market demand. Cointelegraph analysis said net outflows from exchanges and the “value area” thesis indicate that investors continue to accumulate positions. A new uptrend could be confirmed only if Bitcoin turns $72,000 from resistance into support.

The March 25 price analysis focused on whether BTC could hold above $72,000 and tracked short-term patterns in ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, HYPE, ADA, BCH and LINK. The latest report said renewed Bitcoin demand was giving bulls momentum, but trading volume and the performance of any retest would still need to be monitored after a breakout to guard against a false move.