UBS Raises Taiwan’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 8% on AI Momentum

A joint research team from Cathay and National Taiwan University said rising global demand for AI infrastructure and stronger-than-expected corporate capital expenditure were driving robust export growth across Taiwan's semiconductor and information and communications technology supply chains. Because exports are the main engine of Taiwan's economy, that momentum will directly affect manufacturing investment, employment and full-year economic performance.

As of July 20, 2026, the team had sharply raised its forecast for Taiwan's 2026 economic growth to 10.1%. It also projected that its third-quarter economic climate indicator would shift to “sunny,” signaling expansion, while financial conditions would remain accommodative. The reports did not disclose a specific figure for AI-related capital expenditure.

The Cathay-NTU industry-academia research team, which has long tracked Taiwan’s economy and financial conditions, said sustained growth in global artificial intelligence demand was driving exports and corporate investment in products including semiconductors and servers. It said this had become a key engine of economic growth, underscoring the technology supply chain’s importance to the broader economy.

The team raised its latest forecast for Taiwan’s 2026 economic growth to 5.8%, citing stronger-than-expected AI-related exports and investment. It also warned that the conflict in the Middle East could push up crude oil and other energy prices. A prolonged conflict would add to imported inflationary pressure and pose a major uncertainty for the 2026 economic outlook.