Leaked US-Iran MOU Draft Proposes Reopening Strait of Hormuz Within 30 Days as Bitcoin Retakes $64,000

Renewed direct exchanges between the United States and Iran have raised the risk of a broader conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Any disruption there could lift energy prices, weigh on US equities and tighten financial conditions. Bitcoin’s response is also under scrutiny as traders assess whether the cryptocurrency will behave as a haven or remain correlated with risk assets during geopolitical shocks.

The latest escalation followed a US military strike on an Iranian facility on an island in the Strait of Hormuz, after which Iran launched missiles at a US base in Jordan. Oil prices jumped and US stocks fell across the board as the confrontation intensified. Bitcoin initially consolidated near $78,000 before slipping below that level, with investors awaiting signs of further retaliation and a clearer market reaction to the widening geopolitical risk.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil, making any threat to shipping a direct risk to energy prices, inflation and interest-rate expectations. Bitcoin has increasingly traded alongside U.S. equities and other risk assets rather than as a geopolitical hedge, leaving crypto markets sensitive to shifts in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and negotiations over navigation through the waterway.

On Aug. 17, fading hopes for progress on Hormuz sent crude oil up nearly 5% and pushed bitcoin below $64,500 to about $63,500, erasing its weekend advance. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had attracted $381.6 million in August through Aug. 5, following $172.4 million in July. Even with those institutional inflows, CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko remained cautious about near-term momentum, with bitcoin still struggling to establish a sustained break above $65,000.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy shipments, making any prolonged closure a threat to oil supplies, inflation and financial markets. Reports that Iran may reach an agreement with Oman to reopen the waterway eased those concerns, improving sentiment after a turbulent July and lifting cryptocurrencies alongside U.S. equity futures.

On Aug. 10, bitcoin rose 0.54% to $65,209, while ether gained 0.86% to $1,925, according to CoinDesk data. Nasdaq 100 index futures advanced 0.45% as investors responded to the Iran-Oman reports. Crypto liquidations fell 32% to $85 million, suggesting leverage-related stress was easing and the market was stabilizing rather than entering another momentum-driven surge.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical conduit for oil exports from the Persian Gulf, making its operating status a major driver of crude prices, inflation expectations and global risk appetite. Prospects for reopening the waterway as US-Iran tensions ease have reduced the market’s supply-disruption premium. Cheaper oil can relieve pressure on corporate costs and interest rates, creating a more supportive backdrop for equities and cryptocurrencies.

As of Aug. 5, 2026, expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen pushed crude prices lower and helped lift the S&P 500’s associated market capitalization to a record $70 trillion. Bitcoin held near $64,000, lagging the sharp advance in US stocks rather than staging an immediate breakout. Still, stronger accumulation signals suggested investors were building positions as BTC continued to consolidate within a tight range.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for Persian Gulf oil exports, and renewed threats by the Iranian government to close it have added uncertainty to US-Iran ceasefire talks. When risks to energy supplies and inflation rise, global risk assets such as Bitcoin typically face safe-haven-driven selling pressure. The situation in the strait has therefore become an important gauge of market capital flows.

As of July 20, 2026, Bitcoin remained range-bound near $64,000, with news about US-Iran talks yet to produce a clear breakout. The latest market view suggests the near-term peak could be $66,000 and questions the sustainability of some of the gains. Bitcoin’s next move will depend on whether Iran escalates its closure threat and whether ceasefire negotiations make progress.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Conflict between the United States and Iran, along with a naval blockade, had heightened energy-supply risks and weighed on risk assets including stocks and cryptocurrencies. U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that the two sides had reached a peace deal and agreed to reopen the strait marked a key turning point for market risk appetite.

In early trading on Monday, July 20, Bitcoin initially approached $66,000 on the news, reaching a nearly two-week high, before climbing above $67,000 in the latest trading. All three major U.S. stock indexes also rose. Iranian state media, however, said the strait would offer free passage for only 60 days and could impose fees afterward, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that issues remained unresolved in the negotiations.

US-Iran nuclear talks have implications for the Middle East and global energy shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz serving as a vital oil route. Conflict risks had driven up oil prices and demand for safe-haven assets, weighing on risk assets such as Bitcoin. A deal and the resumption of shipping would affect energy prices and cryptocurrency markets.

US President Donald Trump said a US-Iran nuclear agreement would be formally signed the following day and that the Strait of Hormuz would immediately reopen to all parties. The announcement sent oil prices lower and Bitcoin higher. The cryptocurrency touched an intraday high of $64,758 before climbing above $65,500 to a two-week high. However, Trump continued to warn of further strikes on Iran, leaving market risks not yet fully resolved.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital export route for Persian Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas, with implications for global energy supplies, inflation and financial markets. Developments in negotiations between Iran and the United States had briefly raised expectations that the strait would fully reopen, lifting Bitcoin. Iran’s military has now reimposed strict controls on shipping, renewing geopolitical pressure on crypto assets.

As of July 19, 2026, Iran’s military said it had retaken control of the Strait of Hormuz and designated only two shipping lanes as open, warning that vessels straying from those routes would face an immediate response. Iran also denied agreeing to begin another round of talks with the United States. Oil prices jumped 7% on the news, while Bitcoin retreated from $78,000 to around $76,000 after briefly falling to $75,500.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed "Freedom Plan" called for escort operations using allied airspace. Saudi Arabia, angered that it had not been notified in advance, refused to open its airspace. The decision disrupted Washington's security plans and affected the outlook for energy supplies and global risk assets.

As of July 20, 2026, Trump had announced a pause in the Strait of Hormuz escort operation. Signs of progress in talks between the United States and Iran eased geopolitical tensions, lifting global equities and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin rose as high as $82,850 intraday, reflecting a rebound in investor risk appetite.

The conflict between Iran and the United States has roiled global energy markets and risk assets, with the Strait of Hormuz serving as a vital oil-shipping route. A prolonged closure could drive up oil prices and inflationary pressure while weighing on volatile assets such as Bitcoin. Iran’s 14-point ceasefire proposal and its willingness to reopen the strait first have become key to the market’s assessment of whether geopolitical risks will ease.

As of July 20, 2026, the United States and Iran were reportedly close to signing a “ceasefire memorandum.” Although U.S. President Donald Trump remained wary of the proposal and did not rule out renewed military action, risk appetite had already recovered. After briefly moving above $79,000, Bitcoin climbed further to more than $82,000, while Ethereum also broke above $2,400.