Crypto Investment Firm Says Bitcoin Could Fall Another 30% in 2026

Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycles are often marked by capitulation, when mounting losses and fear drive investors to sell aggressively. Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Ventures and a longtime cryptocurrency investor, views that phase as a key signal that a bear market is nearing its end. He says Bitcoin has yet to exhibit the type of sustained selling pressure associated with a durable bottom.

Terpin said in his latest commentary that Bitcoin could fall 66% from its record high to about $43,500 before finding a floor, implying a further decline of roughly 30%. He added that a genuine bottom would not be followed by a rapid rebound, warning that investors may face continued downward pressure. The supplied report did not specify the date of his comments.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.

Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.

Bitcoin is at a pivotal stage in a potential bull-market revival, with analysts viewing $78,000 as the dividing line between bullish and bearish medium- to long-term outlooks. A break above that level followed by sustained trading there would bolster confidence that the recovery can continue. Major altcoins including Ether, XRP, BNB and Solana are also testing resistance zones, indicating whether capital is spreading from Bitcoin into the broader crypto market.

As of April 10, 2026, Bitcoin had continued to challenge the $78,000 level during the week but had yet to establish a sustained break above it. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $576 million in net inflows for the week, signaling renewed institutional demand. Meanwhile, several market indicators suggested that Ether (ETH) was undervalued and forming a bottom, putting the strength of any subsequent breakout in focus.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.