Bitcoin Holds Key Support as Oil Shock Revives Fed Hike Bets

Bitcoin is navigating two linked threats to global liquidity: the US interest-rate outlook and Japan’s efforts to support the yen. Inflation readings could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and risk-asset valuations, while currency intervention may affect US Treasury supply and the yen carry trade. That makes Bitcoin’s attempt to turn $80,000 from resistance into support an important test of market conviction.

Bitcoin touched $80,000 on Sept. 6 and recorded its highest weekly close since the week of May 11, though CoinGlass showed heavy liquidity around $80,560. US August PPI and CPI data are due Sept. 10 and Sept. 11, respectively, before the Fed’s Sept. 16 decision. CME Group data put the probability of a quarter-point rate increase at 58.4%, while Bitcoin’s weekly Supertrend flashed its first buy signal since November 2025.

Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets whose price movements are closely tied to Federal Reserve monetary policy. Inflation pressures have returned to the forefront since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest producer-price data. The figures directly influence interest-rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee and could determine global capital flows and whether the bull market in digital assets can continue.

Bitcoin and Ether’s rallies slowed markedly on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, after the inflation data. Investors expect the Fed to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting later this month. The latest data from decentralized prediction platform Polymarket put the probability of no rate change at 93%, as markets adopted a more cautious response to macroeconomic signals.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to expectations for U.S. interest rates and liquidity, while Federal Reserve rate decisions often drive crypto-asset valuations. Markets are now focused on how Chair Jerome Powell will assess changes in inflation and oil prices. His remarks could shape expectations for rate cuts and determine whether capital continues flowing into risk assets.

Bitcoin briefly touched $76,000 ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision before retreating to around $74,000, including a short-lived intraday drop below $75,000. Ether, meanwhile, approached $2,200. Traders turned cautious and watched for signs of a hawkish tilt in Powell's post-meeting comments.

Bitcoin and ether remain highly sensitive to U.S. monetary policy because higher borrowing costs tighten liquidity and reduce the relative appeal of non-yielding risk assets. The August Consumer Price Index was especially important as the final major inflation reading before the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 meeting, where officials were weighing whether to raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points after keeping it at 3.50%-3.75% in July.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Sept. 11 that CPI rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, with the annual rate unchanged from July. Core CPI gained 0.3% on the month but slowed to 2.4% annually from 2.5%. Bitget analysts said the split reflected energy-led pressure in headline inflation alongside continued moderation in underlying prices. The data did little to shift the Fed outlook: bitcoin reversed an initial dip and reached $79,837, while ether rose 7.48% to $2,611.