Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 as $10 Billion Options Expiry Tests Max-Pain Theory
The “max pain” theory holds that an underlying asset's price will move toward the strike price that inflicts the greatest aggregate losses on option buyers and delivers the best outcome for sellers ahead of expiry. Bitcoin displayed this pattern before several monthly and quarterly settlements in 2020 and 2021, making it a common market narrative, though options experts have long questioned the purported causal link.
Bitcoin fell from about $67,000 to below $60,000 on June 24, 2026, before recovering to around $61,700 the following day. It remained far below the $72,000 max-pain level. About $10 billion in quarterly options are due to expire on Deribit at 8 a.m. U.S. Eastern time on June 26. Wintermute traders said recent settlements had shown no clear price-pinning effect, although contract expiries or position rollovers could still amplify volatility.
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The history behind this event$6.4 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry Puts Traders on Volatility Watch
Bitcoin options give investors the right to trade the cryptocurrency at preset strike prices, while market makers typically hedge their exposure as spot prices move. Large expiries on derivatives venues such as Deribit can intensify those adjustments, making concentrated strikes and the so-called “max pain” level important reference points for traders assessing where prices may gravitate as contracts approach settlement.
About $6.4 billion of Bitcoin options are due to expire on Friday after the cryptocurrency climbed from roughly $62,000 to $80,000. The advance has carried Bitcoin through several key strike levels, increasing market makers’ exposure and the potential need to rebalance hedges. Heavy positioning near major strikes could amplify short-term price swings before and after settlement, particularly if spot Bitcoin remains close to levels holding substantial open interest.
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