Bitcoin Outlook Improves After 6% Weekly Gain; Can Bulls Push Higher?

Bitcoin advanced about 7.5% in July, outperforming parts of the traditional equity market despite a modest pullback near month-end. Analysts said selling tied to forced liquidations of leveraged positions had largely run its course, removing a key source of pressure. The next phase is expected to depend more heavily on U.S. macroeconomic signals and whether capital returns to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

By July 31, Bitcoin had preserved most of its roughly 7.5% monthly gain, even as momentum softened in the final sessions. Analysts expect choppy trading through August as investors await U.S. employment data and greater clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows will be closely watched for signs that institutional demand is reviving after recent weakness.

After Bitcoin fell below $75,000 in late May, $70,000 became a key line of defense for bulls. Funding rates turned positive and open interest remained elevated, signaling an influx of leveraged long positions. Bitfinex said, however, that U.S. spot ETFs have replaced some direct buying on Coinbase, making ETF flows an important gauge of institutional demand.

As of a May 28 report, U.S. spot ETFs recorded more than $200 million in daily net outflows and over $1.5 billion across seven days. Global open interest fell below $55 billion, down 14% from when Bitcoin traded above $80,000. On June 22, the annualized funding rate rose to a nearly three-week high of 7%, but CoinGlass data showed ETFs still posted $228 million in net outflows over the preceding week, weighing on momentum for a rebound to $70,000.