Bitcoin Outperforms Gold Despite Hawkish Fed Signals and Surging Oil Prices

Bitcoin and gold are typically viewed as digital and traditional safe-haven assets, respectively, but both have recently come under pressure as markets turn their attention to interest-rate risk. Traders fear U.S. inflation data could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep rates high or even raise them, leading investors to reassess crypto’s effectiveness as a macro hedge.

The latest trading data show Bitcoin down nearly 7% for the week and falling alongside gold, with the anticipated safe-haven buying failing to materialize. Meanwhile, demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has yet to show a clear recovery. Investors continue to reduce risk exposure ahead of the inflation report, betting that the Fed will maintain a hawkish policy stance in the near term.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rates and market liquidity. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered its most hawkish signal in years through the Federal Open Market Committee, while the U.S.-Iran conflict increased energy and inflation risks. Investors responded by retreating from risk assets including cryptocurrencies, as oil prices climbed to their highest level since 2022.

Market analysis on May 18 showed Bitcoin falling below $76,000 and approaching $75,000, with some traders predicting a possible decline to $65,000. Recent buyers sold $770 million worth of BTC at a loss, reflecting how high oil prices, hawkish monetary policy and geopolitical tensions continue to suppress demand.

Bitcoin has long been viewed as a scarce but highly volatile alternative asset, though whether it can replace gold as a safe haven remains disputed. Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin compared the performance of Bitcoin, gold and the S&P 500 after global economic or geopolitical crises to examine how investors reallocated capital following such shocks.

Mercado Bitcoin’s latest research found that Bitcoin’s returns tended to exceed those of gold and the S&P 500 in the two months after global shocks. The findings suggest that although Bitcoin may swing sharply immediately after an event, it subsequently tends to rebound more strongly. However, the report did not provide the study’s publication date, crisis sample, amounts invested or the exact returns for the three asset classes, so the findings should be assessed alongside the full methodology.

Global geopolitical tensions have driven oil prices higher and triggered simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds, straining market liquidity. JPMorgan said gold liquidity has fallen below that of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has shown relative resilience as safe-haven assets are repriced, drawing attention to whether digital assets can capture demand that might otherwise flow into gold.

Gold recently fell below $4,500 and crude oil climbed above $110 a barrel, while equity and credit markets weakened in tandem. Bitcoin nevertheless held the $70,000 level and outperformed gold. Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $1.1 billion in net inflows in March, while the total market capitalization of altcoins had risen about 12% from early February as of the latest reporting.

Bitcoin has characteristics of both a hard asset and a high-risk technology asset. Although growth in global M2 supports its long-term trajectory, speculative capital continues to shape the scale of its gains. Fidelity’s head of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, noted that Bitcoin surged alongside software stocks when the latter rose about 58% in 2017–2018 and 93% in 2020–2021. When software stocks fell about 58% in 2022, Bitcoin also declined sharply.

As of February 27, 2026, gold had gained 153% since the start of 2024, while Bitcoin had fallen 30% over the same period. Binance launched round-the-clock gold futures on January 5, with cumulative trading volume closing in on $35 billion, a daily peak of more than $4 billion and a weekly average of $4.7 billion. CryptoQuant said the total value of assets on the exchange had fallen from $140 billion in August 2025 to $102 billion, its lowest since April of that year, signaling an outflow of capital from the platform.