Bitcoin Decouples From U.S. Stocks in Short Term as Institutions Back Long-Term Fundamentals

U.S. stocks have repeatedly hit record highs on a boom in AI infrastructure and technology shares, while Bitcoin has remained weak as capital shifts elsewhere and selling pressure persists from the post-halving four-year cycle and investors trapped at higher prices. The decoupling of stocks and crypto raises questions about whether on-chain adoption and scarcity can still determine crypto-asset valuations. Hashdex and Charles Schwab both say the current divergence does not signal weaker long-term fundamentals.

A July 6, 2026, report put Bitcoin at about $63,000, down nearly 50% from its October 2025 record high. Hashdex said stablecoin transaction volume in the first half had already surpassed the total for all of 2025, while real-world assets, or RWAs, had grown by more than 60% since the start of the year. Charles Schwab estimated Bitcoin’s mining production cost at about $95,000 and retail investors’ average acquisition cost at about $80,000, arguing that prices would eventually return to fundamentals once short-term selling pressure subsides.