Bitcoin Bottom Signals Emerge as Market Cycle Comes Into Focus

Bitcoin’s roughly four-year cycles have featured different sources of selling pressure. In 2018, it stemmed from inflated project valuations, while the 2022 downturn was triggered by leveraged blowups at Celsius, FTX and others. More recently, the risk shifted to the possibility that Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy (MSTR), might sell Bitcoin to fund dividend payments. FalconX strategist Martin Gaspar said that, with those concerns easing, the market could refocus on fundamentals and signs of a bottom.

On July 8, 2026, FalconX said Strategy had bolstered its US dollar reserves and updated its capital allocation. US M2 exceeded $23 trillion for the first time in May, rising more than 1% from the previous month. As of June 30, Bitcoin ETFs had recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows for the year, including $8.2 billion since May 12. Checkonchain data showed that about 45% of the supply held by long-term investors was at a loss, while their total holdings reached another record high, suggesting that selling pressure may be close to exhaustion.