Bitcoin Nears $75,000 as Analysts Say Breakout Could Spark Fresh Rally

Bitcoin recently established key support at $75,600, coinciding with a record high for the U.S. S&P 500 and technology-sector earnings that lifted risk appetite. The $80,000 level is seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. A decisive break above it would shift the market’s focus to a target of $85,000.

Market tracking on May 20 showed Bitcoin rebounding from a low of $75,600, first reclaiming $77,000 and then rising to about $77,700 intraday. Traders are watching whether it can retake $80,000. Meanwhile, inflows into DOGE and SHIB strengthened, signaling increased short-term speculative demand, though bearish positioning continued to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin tumbled from about $98,000 to $60,000 in early 2026, losing nearly 40% in just two weeks and making $73,000 a key test of whether the rebound can develop into a sustained trend. A “bull trap” occurs when prices reverse sharply after a breakout, trapping buyers who chased the rally. The latest advance is therefore also seen as a test of whether the bear market has ended.

On March 16, Bitcoin gained more than 3% over 24 hours to $73,700 and rose above its 50-day moving average of $71,125 for the first time in two months. An FxPro analyst called it a sign of a medium-term reversal. CoinDesk, however, reported that market makers held billions of dollars in net short gamma exposure near $75,000, potentially amplifying volatility. Whether the breakout can hold remains uncertain.

Bitcoin has been correcting for about five months since retreating from its record high of $126,000 in October 2025. Although the market regards it as a scarce asset, its 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains at 84%. Cointelegraph said that if spot ETF flows are merely following Bitcoin's price, the rebound is not enough to prove the bear market has ended.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $73,000 and approached $74,000 by March 14, 2026. The U.S. Commerce Department said on March 13 that the economy grew just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025. CoinGlass data showed spot ETFs recorded $583 million in net inflows over four consecutive days, while a separate analyst estimate put the amount accumulated by Strategy through its STRC instrument at more than $900 million.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.

On March 25, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded about 2% in a single day to reclaim $72,000 after retesting its 50-day simple moving average. The moving average shifted from resistance to near-term support, but Material Indicators and CoinGlass both identified sell orders and profit-taking around $72,000. Holding that level is therefore pivotal to extending the rally.

On April 8, Bitcoin climbed another 7% and reclaimed $72,000. Active buying volume in Binance futures increased by $2.7 billion in the two hours after news of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while CryptoQuant said net taker volume rose to $1.02 billion, its highest since March 17. Technical resistance is initially seen at $76,000 and $80,000, while a symmetrical triangle pattern points to a potential target of $90,000.

Bitcoin is central to the crypto market’s capitalization and liquidity, and its performance often drives altcoins and investor risk appetite. The rebound came as tensions escalated in the Middle East, with Bitcoin outperforming gold and U.S. stock futures. That suggested some investors continued to view it as a highly liquid alternative asset. However, weak DeFi activity and fading interest in memecoins left the foundations of the recovery uncertain.

As of July 20, Bitcoin had rebounded to about $71,000 over 24 hours, pulling major altcoins higher. More than $550 million in positions were liquidated during the move, predominantly shorts, producing a pronounced short squeeze. Open interest declined, however, indicating that the rally was more likely driven by deleveraging and spot buying than by new, highly leveraged long positions.

With the arrival of spot ETFs and institutional capital, Bitcoin has evolved from a purely crypto-driven trade into a risk asset influenced by the dollar, interest rates and technology stocks. On March 6, Morgan Stanley named BNY Mellon as custodian for its spot Bitcoin ETF, while Kraken gained access to the Fed's payment system. ICE also invested in OKX at a $25 billion valuation, underscoring the accelerating buildout of Wall Street infrastructure.

Bitcoin fell as low as $69,537 during Asian trading on March 19 before recovering to about $70,180, but it still failed to hold firmly above $70,000 after previously reaching $74,468. The Fed kept interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% on March 18 and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%. A strong dollar and weakness in the Nasdaq offset more than $1.1 billion in net ETF inflows over the previous seven days.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury purchases have replaced highly leveraged derivatives as key pillars of the latest rebound. On March 18, data showed U.S. producer prices rose 3.4% year on year in February, while oil climbed above $98, dampening expectations for interest-rate cuts. With risk assets under pressure, the durability of institutional spot demand will be critical in determining whether the rally reverses.

Bitcoin came close to $76,000 on March 17 before retreating 7% and falling below $71,000 the next day. However, U.S. spot ETFs recorded about $1.17 billion in net inflows over the seven consecutive days through March 17. Strategy disclosed on March 16 that it had bought another 22,337 BTC for $1.57 billion, bringing its total holdings to 761,068 BTC. CoinGlass estimated that a drop to $68,000 would trigger only about $450 million in long liquidations.

The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has given traditional investors a regulated route into the asset through managers including BlackRock. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin halving has curtailed new supply, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have bolstered demand for safe-haven assets. Capital flows and shifting supply-demand dynamics have therefore become central drivers of the latest rally.

Bitcoin broke through resistance at $74,000 and hit a fresh high on March 16, gaining 3.68% over 24 hours. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for three consecutive weeks. Major crypto assets including Ether, Solana and Cardano rose as much as 6% on the day, signaling a marked recovery in risk appetite.

Institutional capital has become a major driver of Bitcoin prices since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. An easing of U.S. policy uncertainty, along with gains in U.S. stocks and strong corporate earnings, lifted risk appetite and helped Bitcoin reclaim the $68,000 level.

Bitcoin surged from $62,400 to $68,600 over the past 24 hours, gaining about 9.9% and reaching a weekly high. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended five consecutive weeks of net outflows and recorded one of their largest inflow days of the quarter in the latest session, bolstering buying demand. Analysts cautioned, however, that the risk of market volatility had not fully receded.