Bitcoin Nears End of Bear Market as Long-Term Holders Sell at a Loss

Bitcoin’s continued trading below the realized market average and short-term holders’ cost basis has left the market in a prolonged, range-bound bear phase. On-chain analytics firms say capitulation by long-term holders has historically been a key sign that a cyclical bottom is forming. This suggests a major transfer of holdings is underway and the market may be nearing the end of the bear cycle, providing investors with an important gauge for the timing of medium- to long-term positions.

Glassnode said in July 2026 that the share of Bitcoin held at a loss by long-term holders had risen to 43%, while realized losses peaked at $280 million in a single day. Although average daily outflows from spot ETFs slowed from $193 million in June to $89 million, overall demand remained weak. QCP Capital warned that liquidity risks persist without a monetary-policy cushion, noting that eight private credit funds had reached their 5% quarterly redemption caps in the second quarter amid a wave of withdrawal requests.