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Event File CRYPTO Federal Reserve (Fed) Inflation

Hotter August Core CPI Boosts Fed Rate-Hike Bets

3 reports · First detected 2026-09-11 · Last active 2026-09-11

Core consumer inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is closely watched by the Federal Reserve as a gauge of persistent price pressure. A stubborn reading matters because it can delay policy easing or revive the case for tighter monetary policy, especially after Fed officials signaled they were prepared to act if inflation failed to moderate.

The U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% in August from the previous month, exceeding market forecasts and clouding the outlook for interest rates. The faster-than-expected increase, following officials’ warnings about persistent inflation, prompted traders to reassess the likelihood of renewed tightening. Market-implied odds of another Federal Reserve rate increase climbed to about 90% after the data.

All Coverage

3 original reports
ABMEDIA.IO 2026-09-11
美國 8 月核心 CPI 月增 0.3% 高於預期，聯準會升息機率升至九成
AMERICANBANKER.COM 2026-09-11
Modest CPI reading gives Fed no clear direction on rates
COINDESK.COM 2026-09-11
Core CPI rose a faster-than-forecast 0.3% in August, setting up possible Fed rate hike

The Backstory

The history behind this event
U.S. May CPI Rises More Than Expected to 4.2%, Odds of December Fed Rate Hike Climb to 42.5%first seen 2026-06-10 · 1 reports · similarity 0.79 · same topic: Federal Reserve (Fed)

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation and an important factor in Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions. When price growth remains above the policy target for an extended period, the Fed typically has less scope to cut rates and may even resume raising them. Higher rate expectations can lift the dollar and bond yields while weighing on valuations for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

U.S. CPI inflation rose to 4.2% year on year in May 2026, exceeding market expectations, mainly because of a sharp increase in energy prices and signaling that inflationary pressure had yet to ease. After the data were released, markets scaled back bets on Fed rate cuts this year. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in December climbed to 42.5%, putting downward pressure on risk assets.

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