Bitcoin Bulls Test Historical Resistance After 25% August Rally

Bitcoin spent much of the second half of 2025 through July 2026 below its 50-month moving average, a pattern previously seen during the 2018-2019 bear market and the crypto winter that followed the Terra/LUNA and FTX collapses in 2022. Its return above that measure in August broke a roughly 10-month bearish signal, but a monthly RSI of 50.6 and ADX of 23.7 stopped short of confirming a new bull trend.

The rally accelerated after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled long-end bond buybacks on Aug. 19 and the Securities and Exchange Commission outlined a framework for crypto investment contracts. Bitcoin briefly exceeded $81,000 and gained roughly 25% in August, its best month since November 2024, after touching a 21-month low near $59,300 in June. It traded around $77,500 on Sept. 1, facing resistance at $81,455-$82,538 as investors weighed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh ahead of the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 meeting.