Morgan Stanley Sees Nvidia, AI Infrastructure Winning Across Model Scenarios

Competition in generative AI is broadening beyond model performance to the computing, data-center, networking and power systems needed to train and run increasingly capable software. Morgan Stanley estimates that nearly $3 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028, with more than 80% of that spending still ahead, making the infrastructure layer a central investment theme.

As of Aug. 6, 2026, Morgan Stanley’s latest analysis maps three possible paths for the industry: dominance by closed models, a hybrid ecosystem, or a shift toward open models. Each outcome would distribute profits differently among model developers, cloud platforms and application providers, but all require substantial computing capacity. The firm therefore identifies AI infrastructure suppliers and NVIDIA as the biggest long-term beneficiaries across all three scenarios.