Bitcoin Gains Nearly 10% in July, but Traders Fear Repeat of 2022 Bear-Market Pattern
Research firm Rekt Capital said Bitcoin often faces thin liquidity in the third quarter because of seasonal summer effects. Despite its recent strong rebound, the market remains under pressure from more than $4 billion in ETF outflows since June. Analysts fear the move could be a “dead-cat bounce,” echoing the 2022 bear-market pattern in which a July rally was immediately followed by a sharp August decline and leaving investors on high alert.
Bitcoin gained nearly 10% in the first two weeks of July this year, its best start to the month in recent years, and briefly returned to $65,000. Historical data show that after rebounding nearly 17% in July 2022, Bitcoin immediately plunged 14% in August. Traders remain cautious about the near-term outlook, saying the cryptocurrency must break through resistance at $70,000 to confirm a market reversal.
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The history behind this eventBitcoin Holds July Gain as Markets Brace for Choppy August
Bitcoin advanced about 7.5% in July, outperforming parts of the traditional equity market despite a modest pullback near month-end. Analysts said selling tied to forced liquidations of leveraged positions had largely run its course, removing a key source of pressure. The next phase is expected to depend more heavily on U.S. macroeconomic signals and whether capital returns to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
By July 31, Bitcoin had preserved most of its roughly 7.5% monthly gain, even as momentum softened in the final sessions. Analysts expect choppy trading through August as investors await U.S. employment data and greater clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows will be closely watched for signs that institutional demand is reviving after recent weakness.
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