Bitcoin's Bullish RSI Divergence Points to Potential Price Reversal

TD9 is derived from the Tom DeMark Sequential market-timing indicator. Nine consecutive monthly candles closing below the close four bars earlier may signal that a downtrend is becoming exhausted. The monthly signal draws attention because it captures longer-term trends, but it neither guarantees a bottom nor provides a stand-alone basis for buying. After a similar signal appeared in July 2022, Bitcoin still took five months to form a bottom.

Cointelegraph reported on July 1, 2026, that Tony Severino, citing a TradingView chart, said Bitcoin had completed its first “perfect” monthly TD9 downside setup since July 2022, though confirmation at the close was still pending. $55,000 was the more widely cited downside target, while the current bear market was estimated to be more than two-thirds complete. Scott Melker pointed to bullish RSI divergences on the four-hour, daily and weekly charts, indicating that selling pressure was weakening.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures buying and selling momentum. Material Indicators analyst Keith Alan said the 41.5 level on Bitcoin’s 14-week RSI repeatedly served as support during the bull markets of 2015–2017, 2020–2021 and January 2024–November 2025. Whether the indicator can reclaim that threshold is therefore an important gauge of whether Bitcoin has shifted from a bear market to a bull market.

CoinDesk reported on June 12, 2026, that Bitcoin had rebounded from below $60,000 and briefly climbed to $64,000, but its 14-week RSI remained below 41.5 and continued to fall. Keith Alan said bulls had yet to prove that the trend had reversed. If the RSI falls below the previous week’s 31.89 reading, the price could undergo a further correction, and investors may want to wait for a clear bottoming signal.

The relative strength index (RSI) measures price momentum. A 14-day reading below 30 typically indicates that Bitcoin has been oversold and selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, though it does not mean the market has bottomed. During the March 2020 pandemic crash, the RSI fell to about 15.56 before Bitcoin rebounded roughly 50%, making the latest signal an important gauge for assessing a potential stabilization.

Cointelegraph reported on June 6, 2026, that Bitcoin’s daily RSI had dropped to about 15.5, its lowest since March 2020, after the cryptocurrency lost roughly 30% in the past month. If Bitcoin holds above $60,000, it could rebound to around $70,650. CoinDesk cited Monarq on June 3 as saying a break below $60,000 could send Bitcoin toward $45,000, while QCP Capital said it must establish itself above $67,000 to restore bullish confidence.

Bitcoin began to recover after emerging from its bear market in late 2022, when its stochastic RSI turned higher from oversold territory. Analyst Quantum Ascend used that cycle as a benchmark and said the momentum indicator was repeating its historical pattern, prompting market interest in whether BTC has finished forming a bottom.

Quantum Ascend's latest analysis said Bitcoin's current stochastic RSI pattern “nearly perfectly” matches the final stage of the late-2022 bear market, with highly similar oversold and rebound conditions. The analysis provided no BTC price target or specific amount. For now, it suggests only that a bottom may have formed, subject to confirmation from subsequent price action.

The relative strength index, or RSI, measures an asset’s price momentum, with traders commonly using weekly readings to assess medium- and long-term trends. If Bitcoin’s price makes a new low while its RSI forms a higher low, that would constitute a bullish divergence. Historically, such a pattern can emerge in the late stages of a bear market, but it does not mean prices will necessarily reverse immediately.

Analysts are now watching whether Bitcoin’s weekly RSI can hold a key area and form a higher low. Trader Jelle said the next price turning point could be close once the RSI begins rising again. However, the report provided no specific RSI reading, Bitcoin price, analysis date, institutional affiliation or monetary amount. The signal still requires confirmation from subsequent weekly closes.