Bitcoin Rebounds From 21-Month Low, but Market Sentiment Remains Cautious

Bitcoin and Ether are the crypto market’s main gauges of risk appetite, with sharp moves often spilling into altcoins and leveraged derivatives. The latest recovery comes as record-high U.S. equities and easing anxiety over the Federal Reserve encourage investors to take on more risk. Still, sentiment remains fragile after recent volatility and heavy liquidations unsettled traders across digital-asset markets.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $65,000 level in the latest broad-based advance, while Ether jumped more than 3% to break above $1,940. Crypto derivatives positions worth about $213 million were liquidated across the market over the past 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 30, signaling an improvement from deeper pessimism, though the reading remained in “fear” territory and pointed to continued caution among investors.

Bitcoin’s rebound follows a weak second quarter in which its main demand channels faded and trading activity thinned. The $68,000 area matters because Bitfinex says it combines the short-term holder cost basis, reflecting the average entry price of buyers over the past five months, with the second-quarter opening level. A first retest could prompt underwater holders to sell at breakeven, making the threshold a key test of whether the recovery can develop into a sustained advance.

Bitcoin climbed above $66,000 on July 21, its highest in more than a month, extending a rebound of more than 15% from its early-July low. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs logged a sixth straight session of net inflows by July 22 and attracted about $779 million since July 13, according to SoSoValue. Still, K33 Research said 30-day spot volume stood at just 62.4% of the annual average on July 19, underscoring a seasonal “summer slumber” as the token approaches $68,000.

As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price swings have long served as a barometer for global crypto and fintech markets. The cryptocurrency recently came under sharp downward pressure as geopolitical tensions escalated and the US Federal Reserve signaled a hawkish monetary policy stance. Renewed inflows into spot exchange-traded funds have since provided strong support for the crypto market, leaving Bitcoin’s outlook closely linked to macroeconomic indicators and institutional fund flows.

Bitcoin rebounded sharply on July 16, 2026, after a steep selloff, powering back above $63,500. The short squeeze liquidated more than 57,000 traders across the crypto market over the previous 24 hours, with total liquidations exceeding $160 million. Short positions accounted for nearly 60% of the total. Despite the near-term recovery, the market remains under pressure from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin previously plunged after being hit by U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, triggering cascading liquidations of leveraged positions. The subsequent rebound also lifted Ether and other crypto assets, but investor sentiment remained in extreme-fear territory as outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continued and markets awaited the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The latest wave of buying pushed Bitcoin back to about $64,000, briefly touching $64,200. Based on differing data sets, roughly 97,000–105,000 traders were liquidated over 24 hours, with total liquidations ranging from $270 million to $675 million. Short positions accounted for more than $540 million in losses, representing over 80% of the total.

Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index gauges risk appetite in the crypto market using volatility, trading volume and market sentiment. Bitcoin’s decline has pushed fear into extreme territory. Historically, a bottom in sentiment that coincides with long-term Power Law support has often been viewed as an important signal that prices may be stabilizing.

Bitcoin most recently fell below $67,000, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 11, entering “extreme fear” territory and reaching its lowest level since early April 2025. Market analysts say “max fear” could foreshadow a rebound. If risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin may have a chance to catch up with U.S. stocks, which recently hit record highs.

Bitcoin had retreated steadily since reaching a record $126,000 in October 2025 and came close to $60,000 at one point in 2026. Buying by US spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutions such as Strategy has therefore become a key indicator of whether market demand can stabilize and whether the bear market may be nearing an end.

On April 14, Bitcoin recovered to $74,000 from a weekend low of $70,500. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $615 million in net inflows last Thursday and Friday, while Strategy spent another $1 billion to buy 13,927 Bitcoin. However, the annualized premium on monthly futures stood at just 2%, below the neutral range of 4% to 8%, leaving the market divided over whether a reversal is underway.

Bitcoin has held the $67,000 level even as social sentiment fell to its most bearish since late February and the Fear and Greed Index entered “extreme fear,” showing that prices have not deteriorated in step with retail confidence. Morgan Stanley’s approval of a low-fee Bitcoin ETF suggests institutions still view the pullback as a buying opportunity, while ETF demand has also provided important support.

The latest data showed Bitcoin trading at about $67,100. Despite having plunged roughly 50% from its peak, institutional capital has not retreated significantly, and some ETF investors have instead added to their positions on the dip. Morgan Stanley’s newly approved low-fee ETF, together with record Bitcoin ETF inflows in March, has bolstered buying support and underscored the sharp divergence between price and negative sentiment.

The market had been weighed down by a February selloff and extreme pessimism after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.8 billion in net outflows over five consecutive weeks. Crowded leveraged short positions also left the market vulnerable to a short squeeze when prices rebounded. Whether ETF inflows resume has become a key indicator of risk appetite among U.S. institutional investors.

On February 25, Bitcoin rose more than 5% over 24 hours to $67,500 in early U.S. trading. ETH reclaimed $2,000, while major tokens including SOL and DOGE gained more than 10%. CoinGlass recorded more than $307 million in short liquidations. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $506.5 million that day, including $297.4 million for BlackRock’s IBIT.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest-rate and inflation expectations. February’s consumer price index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics matched market forecasts and did not support a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Still, falling oil prices helped ease inflationary pressure and supported risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin quickly reversed its overnight losses after the February CPI release, first breaking above $70,100 and then climbing past $71,000. Markets also digested news of a 400 million-barrel oil release. Ether, Solana and Cardano (ADA) rose in tandem, showing little drag from weakness in U.S. stocks.

Bitcoin has long been viewed by some investors as inflation-resistant “digital gold,” but its recent performance has more closely resembled that of a volatile risk asset. Its price has moved closely in line with software-stock benchmarks such as the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), suggesting that selling pressure in U.S. technology shares and private equity markets is spilling into cryptocurrencies.

During U.S. trading on Monday, July 13, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $65,000, but the rally failed to hold. It retreated to about $65,400 as the broader stock market and software shares declined. Polymarket showed the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 had risen to 72%, reflecting weakening confidence among holders and increased downside risk.