Bitcoin Retreats From $65,000 Ahead of U.S. Inflation Test

An unexpected cooling in the US producer price index for June strengthened expectations that inflationary pressure was easing and the Federal Reserve could move toward looser monetary policy. The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics improved sentiment toward risk assets, helping Bitcoin rebound as investors reassessed the outlook for interest rates and market liquidity.

Bitcoin initially climbed above $65,500, its highest level in nearly three weeks, before extending the advance to about $66,300 and approaching a one-month high. The move marked a fresh attempt to break out of its recent trading range, though some investor groups sold into the rally. Traders remained cautious about whether Bitcoin could hold above the key threshold and sustain further gains.

The U.S. consumer price index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in mid-July is a key input into Federal Reserve monetary policy. The Fed’s previous rate increases to curb inflation put heavy pressure on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Cooling inflation is therefore seen as a key signal that the central bank could ease monetary policy, with direct implications for global capital flows and the cryptocurrency market.

The annual U.S. CPI rate slowed to 3.5% in June, below market expectations, in the largest monthly decline since 2020. The news sparked a broad cryptocurrency rally, with Bitcoin quickly breaking above $64,000 in mid-July before surging as high as $65,100. The powerful short squeeze liquidated nearly 70,000 bearish traders, with total liquidations reaching $355 million. Some analysts, however, remained cautious about whether Bitcoin could hold above a key resistance level.

As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to interest rates, the dollar and market liquidity. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments about persistent inflation briefly spurred demand for safe-haven assets. But rising Treasury yields, strong earnings from AI technology stocks and continued outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs redirected capital toward fixed-income and equity markets.

A July 2 report showed Bitcoin climbing back above $60,000 on Wednesday, though it remained 53% below its all-time high. The five-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.22%, while CME FedWatch put the probability of a rate increase by September 16 at 64%, up from 23% a month earlier. With the dollar index closing in on a one-year high, the market increasingly viewed a near-term advance to $65,000 as more difficult.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, released by the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is a key gauge used by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation and set interest-rate policy. The May reading rose to a three-year high, cooling expectations for the timing of rate cuts. US stocks weakened, weighing on risk assets and exposing Bitcoin to concentrated selling pressure.

Bitcoin plunged to $58,000 following the US May PCE data, marking a 21-month low, while inflation concerns also sent US stocks lower in volatile trading. The rapid correction triggered cascading closures of leveraged positions, with more than $600 million liquidated across the cryptocurrency market in just one hour. Some traders questioned whether the market had been “manipulated.”

Bitcoin is typically highly sensitive to inflation, interest rates and geopolitical risk. US Bureau of Labor Statistics data on producer prices influence expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy shipments. Iran’s closure of the strait could drive up oil prices and demand for safe-haven assets, making BTC’s rebound against these headwinds particularly noteworthy.

As of July 20, Bitcoin had climbed as high as $63,200, reclaiming the $63,000 level. Buying showed no significant signs of fading even after US PPI rose more than expected and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are now focused on a price gap left by CME Bitcoin futures, watching whether the spot market moves to fill it.

Bitcoin has continued to retreat from its highs, with $62,000 emerging as a key support level for the market. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index (CPI) influences expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which in turn affect dollar liquidity and valuations for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. That makes the U.S. inflation reading for May particularly important.

Bitcoin most recently fell below $62,000 and briefly approached $61,000. More than $426 million in positions were liquidated across the market over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for about 80%, while the Fear Index dropped to 12. U.S. core CPI subsequently rose 0.2% month on month in May, less than the market had feared, helping Bitcoin pare some losses. The $60,000 threshold nevertheless remains under pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) is highly sensitive to inflation and interest-rate expectations. A smaller-than-expected increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) signaled easing upstream price pressures and raised expectations of a shift toward looser monetary policy, lifting risk assets including cryptocurrencies. The $76,000 level has become a key test of whether the rebound can continue.

In the latest rally, BTC briefly broke above $76,000 after the U.S. PPI release, posting its strongest performance since mid-March, but it subsequently failed to hold that level. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned of mounting near-term selling pressure, while traders realized profits on roughly 63,000 BTC during the advance. The market is now watching whether Bitcoin can regain a firm foothold above $76,000.

Bitcoin’s recent performance has been shaped by both U.S. economic fundamentals and derivatives positioning. Strong economic data and an expansion in services lifted U.S. stocks, drawing capital back into risk assets. As Bitcoin broke through a key resistance zone, leveraged short sellers were forced to cover, further amplifying the rally and sharpening the market’s focus on support levels and pullback risks.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $74,400, breaking above $74,000 and reaching its highest level since February. Ether and other major cryptocurrencies gained as much as 7%. CoinGlass data showed that liquidations across the crypto market approached $600 million over the latest 24 hours, including about $430 million in short-position losses, indicating that a short squeeze and derivatives trading were important forces behind the rally’s acceleration.

Bitcoin and risk assets such as U.S. stocks are highly sensitive to the outlook for U.S. interest rates. A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index from the U.S. Labor Department pushed back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Persistent bond-market concerns over inflation and broader economic risks drove capital toward safe-haven assets such as gold, putting cryptocurrencies under selling pressure.

Bitcoin initially fell to about $65,000 in a weekend sell-off, while Solana, XRP and Dogecoin each dropped about 6%. Although Bitcoin and U.S. stocks briefly stabilized afterward, the cryptocurrency failed to hold above $66,000. Market analysis remained cautious on March 27, with Bitcoin holders' unrealized losses estimated at $600 billion. Only some AI-related tokens continued to attract buying interest.

Institutional capital has become a major driver of Bitcoin prices since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. An easing of U.S. policy uncertainty, along with gains in U.S. stocks and strong corporate earnings, lifted risk appetite and helped Bitcoin reclaim the $68,000 level.

Bitcoin surged from $62,400 to $68,600 over the past 24 hours, gaining about 9.9% and reaching a weekly high. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended five consecutive weeks of net outflows and recorded one of their largest inflow days of the quarter in the latest session, bolstering buying demand. Analysts cautioned, however, that the risk of market volatility had not fully receded.