Grayscale Says Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Ahead of Cycle Low

Bitcoin has historically traded around a four-year cycle tied to its halving, a pattern that would point to the next market low in September or October. Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl said the asset has matured and is now more heavily influenced by economic growth, real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy. That shift matters because a turn in the macroeconomic backdrop could bring forward Bitcoin’s trough rather than leave investors waiting for the traditional cycle timetable.

In a report released on July 22, Pandl said Bitcoin may already have bottomed if the Fed avoids further rate increases and economic growth remains resilient. The central bank’s next rate decision is due July 29, with markets pricing a 66% chance of no change, down from 88% a week earlier. K33 also noted in July that more than 50% of Bitcoin supply was held at a loss, while long-term investor holdings reached a record 14.7 million Bitcoin in June.