Grayscale Says Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Ahead of Cycle

Bitcoin has historically followed a roughly four-year rhythm tied to halvings, with prices bottoming about a year after a cycle peak and 2.5 years after a halving. Drawdowns have averaged about 80%. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl argues the asset has matured as institutional participation expands, making economic growth, real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy more important than the old cycle template.

In a July 22 report, Pandl said Bitcoin may already have bottomed if the Fed refrains from further rate increases and economic growth holds up. The token rebounded more than 10% from an early-July low of $57,717 to about $65,000, while the traditional model points to a September or October trough near $50,000. K33 said more than half of supply was underwater, and long-term holders reached a record 14.7 million Bitcoin in June.