Iranian Rial Collapse Fuels Speculation as USDT and Underground Crypto Markets Become Key Trading Channels
Long-running US sanctions administered by OFAC have restricted Iran’s access to foreign currency, often prompting residents to turn to the US dollar-pegged stablecoin USDT and local exchange Nobitex to preserve their assets. Following the rial’s sharp depreciation, crypto markets have increasingly become underground channels for currency conversion, hedging and bets on a rebound. Such transactions, however, remain exposed to sanctions and asset-freeze risks.
The Iranian rial has lost more than 96% of its value over the past two months. At one point in Tehran, $200 could be exchanged for 160 million rials in cash. Iran’s central bank has also used USDT to intervene in the foreign-exchange market. Investors nevertheless face the risk that Tether could freeze their funds, along with risks involving Nobitex channels, currency reform and further exchange-rate declines.
All Coverage
2 original reportsThe Backstory
The history behind this eventOutflows from Iran's Nobitex Surge 700% as Crypto Becomes Geopolitical Hedge
Nobitex is Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange and a key gateway for converting rials into digital assets such as Bitcoin and USDT. Elliptic said the platform processed $7.2 billion in incoming and outgoing transactions in 2025. With Iran facing long-running international sanctions, rial depreciation and restrictions on cross-border banking, crypto assets offer a means of preserving value, transferring funds across borders and bypassing traditional financial channels. Those uses draw particular attention during geopolitical conflict.
Outflows from Nobitex surged 700% within minutes of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, according to Elliptic. Chainalysis said about $10.3 million had flowed out of Iranian exchanges by March 2. TRM Labs, however, said more than $35 million was transferred into Nobitex's own cold wallets as part of routine treasury operations, meaning the activity did not yet conclusively indicate broad capital flight.
Subscribe to Mark Radar Weekly
Every Friday, the week's strongest signals in your inbox. Unsubscribe anytime.