Analyst Says Bitcoin Recovery Is Fragile as Geopolitics Set to Drive 2026 Markets

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rates and risk appetite. The war in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices and inflationary pressure, potentially forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve to delay monetary easing. Coin Bureau founder and market analyst Nic Puckrin said that even if the Iran war ended immediately, its fallout would continue to dominate markets in 2026, particularly in the second quarter, leaving the crypto rebound on fragile footing.

Cointelegraph reported on April 12 that Bitcoin had risen 5.8% since April 6 and climbed above $73,000 before falling to $71,000 on April 11 after U.S.-Iran talks collapsed. TradingView quoted the cryptocurrency at $71,276. Puckrin said oil would need to fall to $80 for Bitcoin to have a chance of reaching $90,000, while the Fed may not cut interest rates until the end of the third quarter at the earliest.