Analysts Debate Whether Bitcoin Faces a ‘Sell in May’ Bear Market

Bitcoin has long been influenced by its four-year cycle, U.S. monetary policy and electoral politics. The “sell in May” thesis stems from the cryptocurrency’s historically weak performance during midterm-election years. Bitcoin fell from about $9,200 to $7,500 in May 2018 and from about $37,700 to $31,700 in May 2022, drawing attention to its potential trajectory in 2026.

The latest debate centers on May 2026. Bearish analysts say the historical pattern is already flashing a bear-market warning, while bulls point to progress on the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Congress. The legislation could clarify the SEC’s and CFTC’s respective authority over digital assets. Together with a friendlier political environment than in 2018 and 2022, that could reduce the risk of another sharp pullback.