Goldman Warns AI Boom Won’t Fix Korea’s K-Shaped Economy
South Korea’s artificial-intelligence boom is concentrated among semiconductor champions including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which are benefiting from global demand for chips and data-center infrastructure. The export and investment gains matter for a trade-dependent economy, but rapid population aging and a stronger propensity to save among older households weaken the transmission of corporate wealth into private consumption.
Goldman Sachs warned in its latest analysis that AI-driven exports and capital spending may not be enough to revive sluggish household demand. The divergence risks reinforcing a “K-shaped cycle,” with large technology companies and exporters moving higher while consumers remain constrained by demographic pressures and elevated saving. That split could limit the boom’s contribution to broader domestic growth even as Korea’s chipmakers prosper.
All Coverage
1 original reportsThe Backstory
The history behind this eventGoldman Says AI Boom Deepens K-Shaped Divide in Taiwan, South Korea and Raises Rate-Hike Pressure
Demand for AI chips is boosting technology exports and corporate profits in Taiwan and South Korea, but the gains have not translated into stronger domestic demand or growth in non-tech industries. The result is a K-shaped divide, with the technology sector surging while traditional industries and households lag behind. Goldman Sachs said the countries’ huge external surpluses would also intensify appreciation pressure on the New Taiwan dollar and South Korean won, making it harder for their central banks to maintain accommodative policies.
A team of Goldman Sachs Group economists led by Andrew Tilton estimated in a May 11, 2026, report that Taiwan’s current-account surplus would exceed 20% of GDP in 2026, while South Korea’s would top 10%. Taiwan’s GDP growth is forecast at nearly 10%, compared with 2.5% for South Korea. Goldman also expects Taiwan’s central bank to raise rates by 12.5 basis points in each of the second and fourth quarters, with the Bank of Korea lifting rates by 25 basis points in each of the third and fourth quarters.
Subscribe to Mark Radar Weekly
Every Friday, the week's strongest signals in your inbox. Unsubscribe anytime.
If you search news on Google, you can set Mark Radar as a preferred source—our coverage will show up more often in your results. Set as preferred source on Google →