Analysis: How Trump's Tariff Policies Affect Bitcoin Prices

The Trump administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on April 2, 2025, to announce a 10% baseline tariff on most imports, effective April 5. Because the measure covered global trade, its legality had implications for corporate costs, inflation expectations and the pricing of risk assets including Bitcoin.

The US Court of International Trade ruled on May 28, 2025, that the president lacked authority under the law to impose sweeping tariffs and ordered the relevant directives rescinded. The Justice Department immediately appealed. On May 29, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit stayed the lower court’s ruling, allowing the 10% tariff to remain in force and prolonging policy uncertainty for markets.

Diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran affects tensions in the Middle East, energy prices and global risk appetite, with the impact also reflected in volatile assets such as Bitcoin. Washington had planned to send Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for a new round of talks involving Iran, briefly raising market hopes that tensions could ease.

According to an April 25, 2026, CoinDesk report, Bitcoin surrendered earlier gains after Donald Trump canceled the pair’s trip. The cryptocurrency fell about $100 to $77,351 near noon U.S. Eastern time. Traders viewed the move as a short-term geopolitical risk and were also watching Trump’s speech at a cryptocurrency conference in Palm Beach later that day.

U.S. President Donald Trump's policy positions and public remarks have long influenced prices for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. A review found that Bitcoin moved by about 5% to 12% after at least five of his statements, underscoring the market's acute sensitivity to White House policy signals, regulatory direction and political risk. The swings have also fueled concerns about short-term trading and price manipulation.

The latest analysis warned that the market could see another bout of sharp volatility if Trump issues a fresh cryptocurrency policy statement this week. Investors should watch for unusual trading volumes and price movements before and after any remarks. The available event data did not specify the dates of the statements, the research organization, any dollar amounts or the names of experts; the only known figures are the five cases and the 5% to 12% range of price moves.

As conflict between the United States and Iran escalates and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the question of whether China is supplying Iran with air-defense weapons has implications for U.S.-China trade, energy prices and the military balance in the Middle East. The developments have prompted markets to reassess Bitcoin’s narrative as a sovereign-independent store of value. However, geopolitical risk could initially weigh on risk assets, and Bitcoin’s safe-haven performance may remain volatile.

On April 8, 2026, Trump announced that goods imported from any country supplying weapons to Iran would immediately face an additional 50% tariff. On April 12, he explicitly said China would also be covered. CNN cited U.S. intelligence indicating that Beijing planned to deliver systems including shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles within weeks, while China’s Foreign Ministry denied supplying weapons. As of April 13, the tariff had not been formally imposed. During the same period, Strategy bucked the trend by spending $1 billion to increase its Bitcoin holdings.

Trump delivered his first State of the Union address to the U.S. Congress since returning to the White House, focusing his policy agenda on border security, immigration controls and tariffs. As the world’s largest economy, changes in U.S. tariffs affect supply chains, inflation and investor risk appetite, making volatile assets such as Bitcoin more sensitive to policy signals.

On February 24, 2026, Trump declared that the United States was entering a “golden age” and laid out 16 issues spanning the economy, tariffs, healthcare and Iran’s nuclear weapons. He called for “zero entry” at the border and further tariff increases. The policy uncertainty quickly spilled into cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin swinging sharply around $68,000.

The Trump administration’s tariffs face a constitutional dispute in the United States, while the future of the policy and arrangements for refunds remain unclear, fueling risk aversion across global markets. Bitcoin is also under pressure as large holders reduce their positions, with moves by the 10 biggest investors emerging as a major source of selling. Capital is shifting toward safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

Bitcoin plunged on the 22nd and fell below $65,000, with market analysts attributing the decline to renewed tariff risks and selling by whales. U.S. Customs said it would stop collecting Trump administration tariffs ruled unconstitutional from the 24th, but has yet to announce the timing or procedures for $175 billion in refunds.