Bitcoin Trades Sideways for Nearly 50 Days in Structural Consolidation

Bitcoin initially rebounded from its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) during the 2022 bear market before breaking below the long-term support level. The moving average has therefore become an important dividing line for gauging whether the bear market is deepening. Analyst Rekt Capital believes the 2026 price structure is following almost the same pattern. If Bitcoin first forms a lower high and then loses the level on a retest, the broader downtrend could continue.

TradingView data showed Bitcoin fell to $65,362 on Bitstamp on June 3, its lowest level since early April. Rekt Capital put the 50-month EMA at $66,628. Trader Leviathan identified $60,000 as a critical line of defense, while Killa said Bitcoin could consolidate between $63,000 and $65,000 in the coming weeks, with a break below that range potentially deepening the decline.

Bitcoin remains under bear-market pressure, though 10x Research says its decline is gradually slowing. Stronger ETF inflows, compressed volatility and easing selling pressure suggest near-term momentum is beginning to stabilize. Those signals, however, are not yet sufficient to demonstrate a structural reversal, leaving investors exposed to further declines.

As of July 20, 2026, 10x Research identified $62,500 as a key support level for Bitcoin. Holding above it could lay the groundwork for a subsequent rebound. Analysts said several recent indicators have improved, but Bitcoin has not yet formally broken out of its bear-market structure and needs further confirmation from price action and fund flows.

Data aggregator Swissblock’s Bitcoin Risk Index is designed to identify the final stages of a downturn. After the indicator shifted from high to low risk in 2023, Bitcoin gained about 130% through 2024. A similar fractal has reappeared, offering an important clue as to whether the current bear market is nearing a turning point, though historical patterns do not guarantee another rally.

As of February 28, 2026, Swissblock said Bitcoin had remained in the “extreme risk” zone for 25 consecutive days, surpassing the 23-day record set in 2023. Ecoinometrics, however, showed that the 90-day average flow into Bitcoin ETFs was negative $2.06 billion. U.S. PCE inflation was 2.9% year on year, with core inflation at 3.0%. Willy Woo of CMCC Crest warned that a rebound into the $70,000–$80,000 range could encounter renewed selling pressure.