Arthur Hayes Calls AI the New Subprime Crisis, Sees Bitcoin at $125,000 by Year-End

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said heavy corporate investment in AI will displace highly paid knowledge workers. Rising unemployment and defaults could force banks to tighten credit, creating a shock similar to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. His thesis links the AI boom to financial-system liquidity and demand for Bitcoin as a hedge.

Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference, Hayes said the Iran war and AI spending were shifting the dominant market narrative from deflation to wartime inflation. He expects fiscal expansion and growth in the money supply to lift Bitcoin. Hayes reiterated a year-end target of $125,000, slightly below his previous forecast of $126,000, while warning that a near-term pullback remained possible.