Bitwise Says Bitcoin Has Priced In Tightening, Faces Less Downside Risk Than Stocks
Asset manager Bitwise said Bitcoin’s valuation has already compressed during previous monetary-tightening cycles, meaning market prices may have anticipated high interest rates and shrinking liquidity. The assessment matters because Bitcoin’s potential losses could be smaller than those of traditional equities when new macroeconomic shocks emerge.
The latest analysis shows that rising inflation expectations are reducing market bets on central bank rate cuts. Bitwise, however, believes this policy headwind is largely priced into Bitcoin, giving it better downside protection than stocks. The available information provides no specific publication date, investment amount or quantified decline, and the conclusion remains a relative valuation assessment.
All Coverage
1 original reportsThe Backstory
The history behind this eventBitwise Sees Bitcoin at Deep Discount but Warns of Hawkish Fed Risk
Bitwise Investments gauges Bitcoin’s valuation using the Mayer Multiple, which measures its price against the 200-day moving average. The indicator is below 1.0, a level historically associated with long-term accumulation zones. Bitcoin is trading at a discount while AI-related stocks such as NVIDIA stand above their long-term trends. Potential fundraising by SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI totaling more than $200 billion could also divert capital from the market.
A June 18, 2026, report said the Federal Reserve had kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% the previous day. Its dot plot showed nine officials expected at least one rate increase this year, while six anticipated two or more. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $64,000. CryptoQuant said realized-cap growth has been in a bearish phase since October 30, 2025, with its seven-day and 59-day averages falling to 13.9 and 19.1, respectively, as of June 17, signaling slower inflows of new capital.
Subscribe to Mark Radar Weekly
Every Friday, the week's strongest signals in your inbox. Unsubscribe anytime.
If you search news on Google, you can set Mark Radar as a preferred source—our coverage will show up more often in your results. Set as preferred source on Google →